The Rock Trading #TRT

$SPY CHART OF THE WEEK

I present to you two scenarios for PCE data on Friday. I believe it'll be soft but you know how markets like some dips prior to event. If we end up around 538/539 before event, BTD opportunity here and PCE could have us back to 548. If 538/539 does not hit, we probably end up around 548 before Friday, and rip to 552.

Well.. flat week.

$SPX $QQQ ends the week virtually flat even though $GOOG saw a new ATH today, $NVDA WAS #1 company in the world earlier this week but reclaimed by $MSFT - for a no big data week, this isn't really all that bearish. Some cool off after we saw 5500 $SPX was warranted but the dip didn't break 5450s.

This leads to me to be...

Semis

Story of the morning so far, semi names still getting hammered including $NVDA $AVGO $DELL $SMCI what was really hot names just two days ago, now taking a backseat. As of this morning $MSFT has reclaimed the #1 largest company by market cap while $NVDA and $AAPL is in a dead heat at 3.22T each. $MSFT did print a hammer yester...

Tech Sell off, But Broadening Market

Nice start to the day, when $NVDA $SPY $QQQ opened up another ATH's but that quickly fizzled out as market sold off the overnight move on semi names and moved in to XLU/XLV/XLE/XLF $DIA. Which isn't bad, gives the semi names such as $NVDA $DELL $SMCI and others a chance to cool off but $AMD definitely saw a nice move today al...

Gap ups

Majority of semi names gapped up this morning $SMCI $NVDA $DELL $ARM to name a few surrounding news yesterday on building AI Factory in Memphis. $SPY gapped up in to the 550 levels (SPX 5500) and that would be a psychological resistance area. Today, we're watching to see if the price actually creates a support at 548 levels o...

What did you expect?

After such a beautiful unexpected move yesterday to start the week $SPY $QQQ just ranged it today, which is great news. After a big move you want consolidation and some basing. Big news $NVDA is now the #1 largest company in the world by Market Cap displacing $MSFT the king! Caught of of this move today and also holding share...

CHOP BEFORE HOLIDAY?

Markets pretty darn close to that 5500 resistance, and I think it'll hit at some point today. I'd love a pull back down to 543 to buy the dip opportunity as that's the trendline here. $SPY

Major watches today includes $AMD, I think it's time or almost time. $AVGO crossed 1880 levels has a small gap to fill but I...

WOW.

Nice day on the market! Brand new highs on $QQQ $SPY nearly topping the 550 level. Great wins on $AMZN $SPY and $AVGO calls today! Market is running hot and index almost at 5500, I hope this isn't a major bull trap as we get to a new milestone with a 537 gap yet to be filled below. A pull back would be warranted here at these...

Happy Monday

Good Morning! Markets pretty flat this morning...$AVGO tops 1800 premarket, $SMCI still have some juice left and of course $NVDA is going to benefit from $AVGO's rally it's been having. On watch today is $SMCI as they'll be the next stock split candidate, $DELL chart looks primed for a move towards 144 20DMA, and keep an eye ...

TOP WATCHES WEEK OF JUN 17

TOP WATCHES THIS WEEK:

$DELL STO AT FLOOR, MACD DAILY TRING TO CURL, CLOSED ABOVE THE 5MA/50MA LAST TWO DAYS, 20D 144. I THINK THIS HAS A CHANCE THIS WEEK TO RISE.

SMCI, INSIDE DAY FRIDAY, DAILY MACD GREEN ...

Another ATH Weekly Close on Index

Great week! All upside targets were achieved after CPI report. We also hit it big with $ORCL $AVGO $ADBE this week. One of my personal best week this year so far. $SPX closed at another weekly ATH! Over last three weeks we've seen higher highs and lows. A great setup going in to next week right?

2024-06-14 19:32:32 +0000 UTC View Post

Ehhh...

Pretty slow day today, not much but bag of mixed movements. The star really was $SMCI and even though $TSLA started the morning with a bang gave back some of the gains. We'll have to see how the shareholder event tonight goes, but I'm guessing not much and $TSLA has a daily gap back to 178. $AVGO up over 12% on the day after ...

WELCOME TO DISINFLATION MODE!

Breaking News out this morning: PPI YOY 2.2, EXP 2.5 PPI MOM -0.2 EXP 0.1 CORE PPI YOY 2.3 BELOW EXP. CORE PPI MOM 0.0%

This data would definitely be very welcomed by Powell and Company after yesterday's somewhat hawkish tone suggesting only 1 rate cut this year. A few more months of data, and I think market will call t...

All Time Highs Once Again

As forecasted last week, we anticipated soft CPI. One of the reason for soft numbers this morning is because of auto insurance coming back down, and this has been a large make up of recent hot numbers we've seen last several months. Market responded positively by taking $SPX above the 5400 level and closing above. $SPY hit ou...

breaking news

BREAKING NEWS $SPY $QQQ CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.3, PREVIOUS 3.4, EXP 3.4 CORE YOY ACTUAL 3.4, PREVIOUS 3.6, EXP 3.5

Soft inflation num...

$AAPL...Meh.

We talked about the $AAPL chart of the weekend having run UP in to the WWDC event. Unfortunately, the event did not have "AI" sexiness the market is looking for, but a few cool new gadgets, bells and whistles was about all they can muster up. $AAPL is holding the break out level around 192 so far. Have to monitor this.

$AMD

Talk about bad luck. I have not held $AMD options over a weekend in months and when I did this weekend, $MS downgrades $AMD to $176 price target. However, we've seen this before, usually the stock rallys back if the over all market does OK. So we'll have to see about that today as it's holding the 20DMA so far in the premarke...

Index Finishes Green!

All major index closed green for the week, $SPY up over 1% on the week and $QQQ about 2% and new ATH's this week.

Next week's data:

T: CHINA CPI 830PM

W: CPI 830AM FOMC 11AM POWELL 1130AM

TH: JOBLESS 830AM PPI 830AM WILLIAMS 12PM 30 YEAR 1PM 

F: MICHIGAN 10AM FED POLICY REPORT 11AM

Obv...

NFP

Data Out!!! BLOODY DAY? Or maybe not...NFP 272K vs 185K expected, BUT here's the conundrum and that's the Unemployment Rate came in 4.0% vs 3.9% expected. Don't let the NFP fool you it's the UR that's important here this morning and this could be part of the catalyst for rate cut sooner than later.

$SPY Hit our 531 dip...

Flat is to be expected

After reaching all time highs, market expected to trade flat or consolidate for a period of time. NFP data tomorrow 830am. The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable. Most of this week's run up was party $NVDA reaching 1255 ATHs today, and also slowing jobs data...

NEW ATHs

The S&P 500 rose to a fresh high Wednesday as Nvidia led major tech stocks higher and slightly weak labor market data gave investors hope the Federal Reserve might move to lower interest rates later this year. At this point, Fed Swaps are pointing towards a first rate cut in September. Jobs data received so far this ...

JOLTs

Jolts data today just pushed the market in to chop area - question is when do bad news (bad labor data) are actually bad for the market? Albeit, the market is not a direct mirror of how the economy is performing. We get the NFP data on Friday and that'll be really interesting to see how the market perceives that data. Will co...

MIXED

After a rather bullish move on Friday, market gave back some of those gains. Typically, when tech starts running hot premarket such as $AMD $NVDA $QQQ a pull back is warranted to consolidate. But after the dip $SPY fell under 525 support, saw pretty good demand back up around 522 mark. We took this dip and ran with calls most...

Happy Monday!

Jobs data week are really choppy, and we have already seen a large move on Friday, and I feel that type of move pulled in what should be this week potentially with soft jobs data. Remember, the feds did say that they'll cut rates if labor markets fall through the crack. At this point, 3 rate cuts priced in starting in Sept. I...

Charts of the Week!

Two Charts that we should pay attention to over the course of June are % of Stocks in SP500 over the 50DMA and 200DMA.

Both charts have been very telling when to sell the rips and when to buy the dips.

% above 200DMA:

...

WELL..

We remind our viewers that $SPY still had roughly 4% gain this Month, and most of the pull back occured this week only after hitting fresh new highs of 534 day after $NVDA posted earnings. While on the daily, we did lose the 5DMA and 20DMA (both are actually converging) it'll be interesting to watch next week as market...

BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING $SPY

PCE YOY: 2.7 PREVIOUS, 2.7 EXP, 2.7% actual

CORE PCE YOY: 2.8 PREVIOUS, 2.8 EXP, 2.8% actual

GREAT NEWS OUT, as PCE inflation data shows moderation and this is the data we've seen for last two months. Market still pricing in about 3 potential rate cuts and certainly today's data could increase ...

Monthly Candle Closes Tomorrow

Data this morning out Q1 GDP 1.3 vs 1.3 expected, initial jobless claims 219k vs 218k expected. Overnight, $SPY filled the 523.86 gap left from weeks ago, and now we wait to see PCE data. I think this particular data is a make or break information and determines next market move. So Far, holding the 524/525 area is still prio...

Gap Down to Gap back up?

GDP data tomorrow and we're inching closer to the PCE data due out Friday. $SPX gapped down this morning and filled the 5269 gap, while there is a 5250 gap, but there's also a 5300 gap. Wild market right? Move down overnight may have been caused by Australia's inflation and if that's really the news then I think market can ge...

Markets Gapping Down...

Well, this is something we haven't seen in a while: market gapping down on no news so far this morning. $TNX $VIX is up, and Asia sold off overnight as well. What's the worry here? GDP tomorrow or PCE data? or big ol' nothing?

SPX has gap at 5269, 5251 immediate levels, and we will have a gap to fill back to 530 area. S...