Chapter 867: A Repeat of the Qin-Zhao Battle at Changping

Jia Xu’s response didn’t directly answer the question, but Guo Jia and Lu Su both had looks of understanding. Although they didn’t know the contents of Xun Shen's letter, they each had their own suspicions.

“What are you planning?” Liu Bei asked, puzzled.

“We still have some strength left, but once Fazheng takes action, even though Yuan Shao still has the supply routes of Qinghe and Bohai, they won't be able to stall for much longer. This will be our opportunity to bring an end to Hebei. We cannot give them a chance to make a desperate counterattack like Zichuan warned,” Guo Jia said, shaking his head.

“I’ve always been curious, who exactly is Zichuan’s secret agent on Yuan Shao’s side? Sometimes the information Zichuan relays seems a bit too high-level, although by the time we get it, its value has mostly diminished,” Lu Su asked curiously, referring to Xun Shen's letter that had come without revealing its contents.

“Only a few people would have access to such information. Think about it, and you'll know,” Jia Xu remarked casually. “But I don’t particularly like that kind of person.”

Liu Bei was speechless. It was rare for Jia Xu to openly express dislike for someone—this truly was an anomaly.

【Is it because that person resembles you too much?】 Guo Jia thought, unable to stop himself from speculating who Zichuan's mole might be.

“My lord, I suggest you inform all the generals. It won’t be long now before we face Yuan Shao in a decisive battle!” Lu Su spoke up. He had become more accustomed to the battlefield, and like Chen Xi’s secret agents, he knew that certain matters were unavoidable.

After receiving unanimous responses from Jia Xu, Guo Jia, and Lu Su, Liu Bei gained confidence. He promptly issued new orders to prepare for the final stage of the war.

When the three strategists left the military tent, Guo Jia immediately turned to Jia Xu and asked, “Wenhe, why did you push for this plan now? If something goes wrong, one misstep could lead to many more, and we might not be able to recover.”

“Don’t jinx us with that talk. Zijing, you know this as well,” Jia Xu replied, shivering at Guo Jia’s comment. His greatest concern was Guo Jia’s mental ability, which often triggered unconsciously. Whenever Guo Jia spoke, it could have surprising and unintended consequences.

“I agree with Guo Jia,” Lu Su sighed after glancing at Guo Jia. He also thought Jia Xu had a valid point—Guo Jia should avoid saying anything negative. After all, what if his mental gift activated?

“Do you remember how many troops we had when we first set out from Mount Tai?” Jia Xu asked calmly.

“Around 150,000 in total,” Lu Su replied, though he wasn’t quite sure why Jia Xu was asking. Guo Jia, on the other hand, suddenly understood and realized what Jia Xu was getting at. Compared to Lu Su’s generalist abilities, Guo Jia’s talents lay specifically in military strategy.

“And how many do we have now?” Jia Xu continued.

“We’ve lost over 7,000 soldiers in battle so far, and more than 10,000 are no longer combat-ready. We still have about 130,000 troops left,” Lu Su answered with a somewhat blank expression, still not entirely following.

Jia Xu could only sigh. Talking to Chen Xi or Lu Su often led them to get sidetracked, losing focus halfway through the conversation.

“Zijing, Wenhe is asking how many troops we actually have at our disposal right now. He means how many soldiers we can actually mobilize,” Guo Jia explained, stepping in to clarify.

“Right. We originally had 150,000 troops, but a third of them were used to secure our rear. As we advanced and kept winning, we kept pushing the front line further. But that also meant our supply lines and defensive positions grew longer, while Yuan Shao’s supply lines grew shorter,” Jia Xu nodded, picking up where Guo Jia left off.

“We’ve had to allocate half of our forces to defend our supply lines and strategic points, and with the casualties we’ve sustained, we now only have about 50,000 soldiers ready to fight,” Lu Su finally realized, seeing the bigger picture. He had been concerned with these issues before, but Jia Xu’s explanation made it clearer.

“As our supply lines grow longer and more vulnerable, Yuan Shao’s lines shrink, allowing him to free up more troops. Initially, Yuan Shao had 200,000 men, and after conscription, he likely has 140,000 to 150,000 soldiers ready for battle,” Guo Jia said seriously. This situation was becoming a repeat of the Qin-Zhao battle at Changping.

“If this drags on, even if we win, it will be no different from the Qin victory at Changping after three years of stalemate. Our strength shouldn’t be wasted on Yuan Shao. We’d be better off enduring short-term pain than continuing this prolonged drain,” Jia Xu declared resolutely, raising a finger to emphasize his point.

Although the fighting had only gone on for about a month, and hadn’t yet severely impacted the economy or farming in Mount Tai, Qing, or Xu provinces, Jia Xu was quick to recognize the potential long-term damage to Liu Bei’s forces if things continued like this.

Much like how the Zhao Kingdom had initially managed to hold its own against the Qin by shortening its supply lines while forcing Qin’s lines to grow longer, the strategy would ultimately lead to mutual devastation. Zhao had managed to drag Qin to the brink, but both sides were left gasping for air.

“Do we really have to fight now?” Lu Su frowned, signaling to Guo Jia to share his thoughts as well. While Jia Xu made a compelling case, Lu Su wasn’t foolish. It didn’t yet seem as dire as Jia Xu was suggesting, and attacking now might not be as effective as hoped. The conditions for a decisive battle—where one side was forced to fight for survival—hadn’t fully materialized yet. Neither Yuan Shao nor Liu Bei had finished their probing attacks.

“No, it’s not that we must fight now. It’s that if we miss this opportunity, we may never get another chance like it,” Guo Jia finally spoke. “Soon, we won’t be able to act freely. Fazheng’s presence in Jizhou means that Cao Cao is nearing his breaking point.”

“Our war with Yuan Shao must be decided before the first imperial mediation takes place. And when I say ‘decided,’ you all know what kind of outcome we need,” Jia Xu said with icy calm.

“If we don’t settle this before the first mediation, it will become a drawn-out war of attrition,” Guo Jia estimated, his tone equally grave.

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