How Andrew Nembhard gets a jump on stealing the opening jump

And why the center circle projects to put a central focus on his ability to still do the little things while also playing a bigger role

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

Two summers ago, long before the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam or advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons, this publication spent the offseason exploring areas where the team could potentially find small edges for increasing points per possession. At the time, those efforts included a somewhat galaxy-brained deep dive on whether the Pacers should try to get a jump on Myles Turner's low-rate of control on opening tips and jump balls. After all, during the 2022-23 season, the Pacers gained possession, meaning they secured the ball, on only 34 percent of his opening tips. Moreover, when hand-tracking whether Turner, personally, won the tip, getting his hand on the ball and tapping it out independent of which team ultimately caught it, he fared a smidge worse, notching a win-rate of just 32 percent. Even when he had a height advantage, as determined by the heights listed at NBA.com (which can admittedly be wonky), the Pacers went 12-17 with Turner as the taller player, gaining possession on just 41 percent of his opening tips.

Overall, according to the data that was collected, there wasn't exactly a factor that would predict him as the favorite, but the struggles were even more real when he couldn't favor his strong-hand. He rarely tips the ball with his off-hand or changes hands on the way up, so on the tips when he had to stand to the left of the referee, with his hips closed to the ball, he was oftentimes even slower off his feet, losing out to the likes of Ivica Zubac, Al Horford, Jusuf Nurkic, and Nikola Vucevic -- none of whom are typically thought of as explosive leapers.

By the numbers, when Turner was in a closed stance, the Pacers went 9-21 on opening tips, which calculates out to an even lower win-percentage (30 percent) than his overall rate (34 percent). In that scenario, in order for the Pacers to (ahem) "tip" the scales to their advantage, Basketball, She Wrote suggested the possibility of conceding the jump with the deliberate intention of immediately launching into some type of press defense. Granted, "losing" the tip would also mean that they would lose out on starting the fourth quarter with the ball, but with how rarely Turner was getting his hand on the tip, at least they would be giving themselves a potential hand in forcing a turnover while running the first set after halftime -- when they had more knowledge of their opponent's game-plan and could scheme for adjustments.

Well, turns out, Andrew Nembhard had a better idea. If Turner had to be in a closed stance, Indiana's most instinctual defender made sure that the Pacers weren't closed out from gaining possession, as he could oftentimes be seen pushing past his defender before the ball was even tipped in order to turn a potential loss into a win.

Over and over again, he preemptively darted in such a way (i.e. away from the side of the court with his teammates) that suggested he was readily anticipating opportunities to lend a helping hand, even when Turner managed to get a hand on the ball first.

And, here's the thing: Nembhard's instinctual forays as a second-hand tipper rarely came with much, if any, consequence. With the exception of a possession against Trae Young in Atlanta, when he overshot tracking down the steal, his failed attempts to intervene normally just put him in position to start pressuring the ball, as can be seen here in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Teams took notice in the playoffs. Just look at that possession against the Thunder. Granted, Lu Dort certainly has a reputation as a, let's say, hands-on defender, but he's practically acting like a blocker there to prevent Nembhard from regaining the upper hand after Turner didn't get a hand on the ball, despite being in open stance. The same thing happened in the Eastern Conference Finals, only more pronounced. In the Game 1 of that series, which the Pacers ended up winning in overtime, Nembhard held off O.G. Anunoby, securing the ball with his inside hand, to get a jump on what was lost from the opening jump.

With all of the big, late-game shot-making from Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith that may seem like a small, trivial detail, but in a game that was decided by incredibly small, not-so-trivial margins, the Pacers started the fourth quarter with the ball and ended up finishing with one more field-goal attempt than the Knicks in the final frame of regulation. Tellingly, when the series shifted back to Indiana in Game 4, O.G. Anunoby pulled out all of the stops to stop Nembhard from making a play for the tip, not only putting hands on him before anyone's hands touched the ball, but also boxing him out as if they were fighting for a rebound.

The Cavs also went out of their way to get in his way. In Game 2 of that series, which also ended with the Pacers stunning their opponent in crunch-time, Nembhard did what Nembhard does, gaining a step by anticipating another hand-to-hand loss at center.

Once again, because of that play for the tip, the Pacers started the fourth quarter with the ball. They also finished the fourth quarter with 10 more field-goal attempts than the Cavs, as they went up 2-0 in the series. Don't get it twisted. The tips aren't what tipped either of those games, but they also weren't meaningless, either. Otherwise, Anunoby wouldn't have been boxing out Nembhard, and the Cavs wouldn't have responded with Donovan Mitchell facing off with Nembhard instead of facing center court.

The fact that they were tipped off to his gamesmanship on the opening tip was clearly part of the game-plan. Moving forward, the question is whether Nembhard's game-plan will also have to change. Not only because teams have started to anticipate his anticipation, but also because there might not be as much to anticipate.

After all, the reason he is making an effort to make a play for the tip is because Turner, at his below 35 percent win rate, could largely be relied on to not reliably come up bigger than the opposing big when jumping middle. It remains to be seen whether the same will be the case with Jay Huff or Isaiah Jackson as the starting center. Last season, Huff only jumped middle once for the Grizzlies, easily getting the tap over Bol Bol in a late-season win over the Suns. It's possible there'll be fewer tips to steal. If Isaiah Jackson is the starter, he's only been slightly better than Turner to this point in his career, going 10-of-27 for a 37 percent win rate on opening tips and jump-balls over the last three seasons since 3D tracking data on jumps became available via Genius Sports. In that regard, although Jackson has plenty of vertical pop as a lob threat, he still gives up some standing reach as a 6-foot-9 center, which means there's a chance there will be more sightings of Nembhard doing this next season.

Then again, maybe there won't be? Once he's the full-time starting point guard in place of Tyrese Haliburton, it's possible he'll be back waiting to receive the tip as the lead initiator rather than chasing it down.

Tellingly, when he filled in for Haliburton as the starter for the two-game miniseries against Atlanta this past March, he was still off to the side, playing the part of interceptor, with Pascal Siakam positioned where Haliburton would otherwise be as the release valve.

As was laid out in this month's mailbag, Siakam should be expected to have more of the ball this season, both in closing time as well as a bring-up ball-handler. In that way, along with the fact that Ben Sheppard started the second game of that miniseries to prevent Nembhard from having to guard Trae Young full-court while also being guarded and ducked under against by Dyson Daniels, some adjustments might be necessary around him in order for him to be maximized as a lead guard while still maximizing the team with what he contributes in the role he already had. Whether the opening tip is won or lost may not often be pivotal to the outcome of games, but it could be a revelatory microcosm from the very get-go on opening night, as far as whether in taking on a bigger role, he and the team can still find a way for there to be just as much energy and opportunity for him to also do the little things.