Chapter 186

Deep beneath the Red Keep, in the hidden passageways carved into the belly of Aegon’s High Hill, Varys walked side by side with his companion, a torch lighting their way. Clad in full disguise, the Spider spoke calmly but with urgency. "Plans can never keep up with change. Whether Young Aegon is ready or not, the counterattack must begin sooner rather than later."

"Sooner? How soon? The boy is still growing; do you expect me to stretch his limbs and make him taller overnight?" Illyrio grumbled. "What’s happened to the situation that has you so eager?"

"The Ironborn were the first to act, raiding the western coasts, but they were repelled and gained nothing. The old lion refuses to hand over his children and instead retaliated by attacking the Riverlands’ grain supplies and transport lines. To make matters worse, Lannisport has established a new bank, implemented gold control policies, and is forcibly issuing war bonds. Any household keeping more than a certain amount of gold at home instead of depositing it in the bank is deemed treasonous, their assets confiscated, and they’re hanged."

"Madness!" Illyrio exclaimed in shock. "That might be a quick way to raise funds, but how is it any different from outright robbery? Treating his subjects this way—whether Tywin wins or loses, the Westerlands will never truly recover."

"When Tywin eradicated the Reynes and the Tarbecks, people said the same thing," Varys replied, his voice steady. "Yet he became the most powerful and stable lord in all of Westeros. If you can’t ensure survival, what does it matter how well you govern afterward? And forced loans differ from outright theft in one critical way—if he wins, he might pay them back."

"Does he have any chance of winning?" Illyrio asked.

"None that I can see," Varys admitted, his expression darkening. "Though my little birds tell me he’s planning to hire mercenaries from the Stepstones and Essos to raid Westeros’s eastern coastlines, hoping to buy time. But time for what? Unless Robert dies..."

"Hiring outsiders to harass enemy territory? An interesting strategy. Tywin’s military acumen is indeed remarkable," Illyrio remarked, intrigued, before changing the subject. "What of the king’s injuries?"

"A clever strategy, perhaps, but ultimately pointless. All it will do is enrage the Six Kingdoms further," Varys said as he sidestepped a puddle. "As for Robert’s wounds, they seemed to be improving, but they’ve worsened in recent days. The Faith blames it on a ‘wight’ kept in the Red Keep, but I suspect Pycelle has tampered with his treatment. The Hand of the King seems to share my suspicions—he’s replaced Pycelle with other maesters to care for Robert."

"Is the wight real?"

"As far as I’ve seen, it is. The Night’s Watch puts it on display every day, drawing crowds that block entire streets. You can see it yourself if you’re curious," Varys said, casting Illyrio a glance. "Why ask? Don’t tell me you think the existence of wights and White Walkers makes Westeros unworthy of our ambitions. Let me assure you—the Wall has kept them at bay for thousands of years. It’ll hold a little longer. If you’re still worried, donate some coin to the Night’s Watch and help them out."

"I’ll consider it," Illyrio said dismissively. "The Braavosi are likely far more concerned than I am. For now, I must board tonight’s ship back to Pentos."

"And Pycelle? He’s the maester loyal to the Lannisters you once told me about?"

"Correct. If he succeeds, it buys us time. If Robert lives, then all of Tywin’s clever war tactics will amount to nothing. In the end, victory depends on manpower and resources." Varys paused, his voice heavy with thought. "Perhaps I should help Tywin just enough to ensure he doesn’t fall too quickly..."

The Spider pressed a hidden mechanism, and with a deep rumble, a stone slab slid into place behind them, sealing their path.

...

Illyrio, unfazed by the display, continued, "If House Lannister falls, how does that affect our plans?"

"Significantly. The lion is my most useful piece," Varys replied, his voice lowering as they neared the exit. "To ensure the Seven Kingdoms remain in chaos when Young Aegon makes his landing, we need a strong, volatile faction capable of tipping the scales at the critical moment. The Westerlands and the Reach fit the bill. The North, while sparsely populated, has the Stark family’s influence and alliances with the Riverlands and the Vale. But of these three, Eddard Stark is cautious and level-headed—he’s beyond my control. The Reach is rife with factions and nearly impossible to manipulate as a whole. The Westerlands, however, are ruled by a proud, sensitive, and self-absorbed lord. Tywin can be steered with a single thread—his perception of his family’s honor and prestige. Now, with his house facing ruin, I may not live long enough to find a replacement for him."

"What were you doing earlier? How could you let this farce with the Kingslayer attacking Robert and then escaping happen?"

"I’m no god—I can’t predict the actions of fools!" Varys snapped, irritated by the accusation. "Eddard Stark is a suspicious man. You’ve no idea how much effort it took for me to subtly guide him into crafting his own plans against the Lannisters. All it required was holding Jaime and Cersei captive, forcing Tywin into a corner. The tension would have simmered and grown until it exploded into war. But then that fool of a Goldcloak commander intervened and stopped the Kingslayer just as he was about to board the ship that would’ve carried him to captivity."

"The one who was executed in front of the Great Sept, shouting about his service to the kingdom?"

"Yes, that one."

"Fine, I believe you. I retract my accusation." Illyrio sighed. "If the Lannisters fall, chaos will be harder to maintain. But surely more coin and effort could make up the difference?"

"Chaos can still be sown, but without a powerful, controllable faction, sustaining it becomes far harder." Varys took a deep breath. "Our only hope would then lie in the struggle for the throne after Robert’s death."

"Then kill Robert. Surely you don’t have any lingering loyalty or affection for him?"

"I have no qualms about Robert’s death. But what happens afterward? The North, Riverlands, and Vale are natural allies. Littlefinger might still influence the Vale through Lysa, but with him exiled and the Lords Declarant pacified, their unity is nearly unshakeable. Meanwhile, the Reach and Stormlands grow closer. Without the Westerlands as a neutral powerhouse, and with Dorne aligned with us, the war will inevitably devolve into a South-North standoff. Do you understand what that means?"

"A southern and northern alliance locked in war. Can’t we swoop in after they’ve weakened each other?"

"You overestimate our control," Varys said, his tone sharp. "We thrive because we operate in the shadows. Once war breaks out, I have no means of controlling the outcome. With both sides evenly matched, the North cannot invade the Reach, nor can the South breach the Bloody Gate or the Neck. Knowing they can’t decisively win, they won’t commit fully. And with winter coming, the stalemate will only solidify. Without a dragon, how can Aegon, with his mercenaries, defeat two well-rested coalitions and unite the realm?"

"We have dragons," Illyrio reminded him. "Three, in fact."

"Daenerys has dragons. Not us." Varys corrected. "Only by bringing her back and marrying her to Aegon can we claim them. But Aegon can’t ride dragons, and whether their children will be able to is still uncertain. Damn it! If I had known how quickly things would deteriorate, I wouldn’t have let Jorah take her east. Last I heard, she was in Astapor, killing slavers and taking Unsullied, headed toward Yunkai. Who knows where she is now?"

...

"Then we must act quickly." Varys’s voice carried a grim finality. "Before everything collapses."