Ukrainian war blog 7-th of March
Added 2023-03-07 11:29:59 +0000 UTCThese blog is for tier 10 and above but I made an exception with this one, this is for everyone. If you want future daily posts like this, become tier 10 and above.
In recent days, Ukraine has been trying to convince the aggressor and its own public that there is no need to panic in Bahmut. While in February they tried to assure that they would not retreat from Bahmut, last week they tried to create a background for a possible departure from the city. Over the past day, they have again been trying to convey that the siege threat in Bahmut is not great and that they intend to continue the fighting in the city. All of this suggests some disagreement within the Ukrainian leadership over the viability of continuing to defend the city, as reported by the German publication Bild.
Apparently, due to this leak, the Ukrainian president held a meeting with military officials yesterday and announced the intention to continue defending the city. On the one hand, this must be a clear message to Russia that they need to continue to gather troops towards the city and that any statements or threats about besieging the city are not effective. On the other hand, they need to persuade their own troops that defending the city is still a worthwhile goal. However, disagreements are not inherently bad if they can ultimately come to an agreement.
Meanwhile, the Russian media claims that their defense minister has been inspecting troops in the southern part of the Donbass front for the past three days. Allegedly, he was also in Mariupol yesterday, although there is not very convincing evidence of this. One aim of the Russian defense minister's visit is to gain an idea of the reasons for the defeat of Russian forces and the extent of their losses. On the other hand, Ukraine is trying to convince Russia that the offensives near Vugledar, or in the south, are continuing and thus to divert Ukraine's attention from other directions. In this war, it has not been usual for the Russian defense minister to stay so long in a frontline area.
In recent days, Russian attacks have not brought any significant progress. In the past two nights, Russia has also flown Iranian drones, but there have been no significant hits. There have also been no missile attacks following drone attacks, which is explained by a shortage of Russian rocket stocks.
Russian army advances towards Svatove and Kreminna have only continued around the village of Bilohorivka. Elsewhere, the attacks have subsided for almost a week, and there is a heavy artillery exchange going on. The weather certainly does not favor an armored offensive, as the ground has now completely thawed. There is also information that some units have been taken from this direction towards Bahmut. Just a few weeks ago, very decent Russian army units tried to advance here to no avail. It is possible that their offensive potential has now been exhausted.
In the city of Bahmut, Ukrainian special forces are mainly conducting defensive operations, while armored infantry has been rotated out of the city. Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the city are expected to retreat in the coming days and focus on defending the central and western parts of the city. Russian forces have not yet surrounded the city. Ukraine has started launching counter-attacks. To successfully defend the city, Ukrainian forces need to push Russian troops back somewhat to the south and north of Bahmut.
Russian forces in the Donetsk area are continuing their hopeless attempts to advance. At Vugledar, small Ukrainian infantry units are being tested, but no progress is being made except for losses.
There is an artillery duel on the southern front, where Ukraine has had some success in the past week. Ukrainian sources persistently claim that Russian forces are gathering troops at one point on the southern front to attempt an attack to the north. There are reportedly about 11 battalion-tactical groups involved. In recent days, at least one larger Russian army convoy has also been seen heading west from Mariupol. It is hard to believe that Russia can actually launch a new offensive in this area, especially given the state of the roads. At most, they may be able to capture a few villages on the front line.
Russia suffered over 1,000 casualties yesterday, including one attack aircraft, 9 tanks, and other armored vehicles. It is noticeable that the losses suffered by the Russian army yesterday mostly occurred in the Bahmut and Donetsk areas. If the trend of the past five days continues, Ukraine's opportunities for counter-attacks will open up much faster than previously anticipated.
Some interesting developments are taking place in Chechnya. Yesterday, Western media reported that the health of the President of Chechnya had suddenly deteriorated, apparently due to poisoning. While some skepticism about health news in the media is warranted, there is also something else to note. A few days ago, it was reported that the 17-year-old son of the President of Chechnya got married. In addition, a picture of the Russian President with the new 17-year-old groom was published in the Russian media. These events may indirectly confirm more serious problems in Chechnya. However, these developments are not likely to have a significant impact on the overall situation in Ukraine.
Comments
The Wall Street Journal's Yaroslav Trofimov has been producing some of the best mainstream journalism in English and today he reported: "On the front lines in Bakhmut, the eastern city that Wagner has been attacking since July, Ukrainian troops have completed their withdrawal from the roughly one-third of the city’s area that sits on the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River, soldiers said. Ukrainian forces, for now at least, are concentrating on holding the central and western parts of the city, with easily defensible positions in industrial areas and a warren of high-rise apartment blocks there. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he discussed the future of Bakhmut at Monday’s meeting of the country’s top security leadership. Both Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, and Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukrainian land forces who oversees operations in eastern Ukraine, spoke in favor of “continuing the defensive operation and further strengthening of our positions in Bakhmut,” he said. Mr. Zelensky has come under growing pressure to withdraw from Bakhmut so as to avoid an encirclement and to preserve troops for future operations . . . ." This is an amplification of Artur's post in that it says that the withdrawal from Bakhmut east of the Bakhmutka River is complete rather than something to happen "in coming days". It also seems to contradict yesterday's reporting by Bild by saying that Gen. Zaluzhny now supports continuing to hold onto and fight in Bakhmut whereas Bild was reporting that he wanted to withdraw several weeks ago, contrary to Zelensky's wishes. Meanwhile Prigozhin is complaining about the lack of support from the MOD troops to help him hold his flanks which the Ukrainians are attacking. To further quote Trofimov's latest article. ". . . on Monday, Mr. Prigozhin said that the urgent need for extra shells arose from Ukrainian forces’ effort to outflank Wagner’s troops around Bakhmut. “I am knocking on all doors, sounding the alarm about ammunition and reinforcements, so that we also cover our flanks,” he said." Such an outflanking maneuver around Wagner's pincers seems the most sensible way to deal with the situation from the Ukrainian side.
BTinSF
2023-03-08 00:12:46 +0000 UTC
