The Long Investor

HSI

These are the facts:

• Price held on the historical green support line, which has been in place since 1996

• Price pulled back from a high in May to the 0.618 Fib on the 5th of August (same day as the US market sell off)

• Price is above the 200 Day MA

• Price is above the 50...

  2024-08-27 10:07:52 +0000 UTC View Post

$COPX - SAFE HAVEN -

$COPX pulled back in line with the other safe havens between April - July and started moving higher again with them, after finding support on the 200 Day MA and in between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels

No changes to the chart either or our long term targets.

Like Silver getting above $30 and holding, we want to see $...

$SOFI

$SOFI is just negotiating with the descending wedge top line now for a break out, the price went as high as $7.70 today but is back at the trend line now.

We can see that the 200 Day MA is squeezing against the trend line too, which is likely what caused this bounce today

Bulls need to get out of this wedge, and h...

TWEET: $NVDA

I won't be playing the earnings game this Wednesday, too much is riding on $NVDA to deliver a strong report and strong guidance

This sort of risk does not attract me

If the report is strong, with no concerns about t...

$AFRM - WATCHLIST -

$AFRM has been able to hold support on its 0.618 Fib too over the last month and has already bounced and back above its 50 Day MA now, it is also testing the channel support line now too at $31.

A break and hold above this level would be a significant trend change, with the 200 Day MA at $35 left to test.

$PYPL, $...

$IQ

$IQ dropped post earnings, in spite of its double beat but revenue growth was down.

Once the wedge broke down, it's been in search of support and for July and August, it was holding on the 0.788 Fib at $3.

A number of analysts came out since the earnings to revise down their targets which were between $7 - $10 bef...

$DOGE - RC -

$DOGE is still at the platform while the other larger cryptos are starting to make their move

$DOGE fans will like that some support has been found on the 0.78 Fib, which is a larger drop than $ETH and $BTC

Price is still below its 50 and 200 Day MA, so will need to start working its way back up to the 200 Day MA ...

$SMCI

$SMCI has not been as strong as the other Semi companies since the sell off at the start of August, but it still held support on its 0.618 Fib, which is sufficient for an ABC correction to complete

We can see that the 0.5 Fib at $629 was the clear resistance level, so after 7 attempts at this level, the price finally pu...

$CELH

Bullish wedge formed here above the 0.5 Fib at $39.

Morgan Stanley reiterated their $50 PT today too, which would bring this back up to the yellow trend line again

So a breakout and holding above $41, the next test will be the 200 Day MA at $43.70, then $50.

$BIDU

Nice bounce today which is going against a number of the other Chinese ADRS but instead following the HSI.

We know that $BABA started moving a few sessions after its earnings too so this is what we want to see here too.

I can see 3 waves pulled back here and a hold above the 0.618 Fib, so this is how we want to se...

$MRK - RC -

I am not particularly bullish about how this is forming

With a potential for a Head and Shoulders forming here too in this ABC correction

50 WMA has been lost here too, with a retest of this moving average next.

If this does not turn around quickly and the market decides to pull back beforehand, I think this...

$PANW - RC -

I got a lot of requests for this chart this week and the last time I uploaded this chart was in April and there are no changes here

Price held at the Wave 4 support between the 0.38 Fib and 0.5 Fib

Price action then used the 50 and 200 Day MA as support, then once the earnings can out on the 19th of August, the pr...

$JWN - RC -

$JWN has been in a decline channel since 2015 and needs to break above $24 to get out of this and show signs of a reversal.

There has been an arc developing since the end of 2020, which hit $13 in October and has been gradually climbing to $21.

Price is still above the 200 Day MA and the 50 Day MA, so bulls need t...

$SOXL

$SOXL has dropped hard from $70 to $23, in a very abrupt drop

So there are two scenarios here at play

1. I have white circled an area that is potentially Wave B and Wave C has completed in between the 0.618 - 0.78 Fib at $23

or

2. We are still in Wave B now and we could get a bounce up to the 50 Day M...

HSI

The HSI does like Mondays.

I suspect the weakness being shown between the US and Japan, may attract more people to the HSI as a way to stay away from the weakness.

The chart is clearly showing a positive trend, after holding on the 0.618 Fib, the 200 Day MA and now a clear bounce on the 50 Day MA.

Let's see ...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

$TLT and $TMF have been two other safe havens that have been brilliant for this group, as we continue to prepare for what is next with the market.

While many focus on squeezing what they can out of the market, buying overpriced speculated positions, we have been focusing on taking value from safe havens before the marke...

USDJPY

US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is painting a very clear picture here

We can see the flush down from the 5th of August to $141, the current price is at $144 now, after clearly rejecting at the 0.618 Fib at $148 and the wedge trend line

This confirms the bearish trend

Japan may need to increase rates, whil...

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

This has been moving very well for us and the pull back to the 0.38 Fib last week at $28.9 and holding has now been confirmed as Subwave 4 for me, since a new high has been made, we are above the 1.618 Fib and most importantly, back above $30 again.

So what I am looking at now is a continuation higher to our Subwave 5 t...

$PDD - EARNINGS JUST RELEASED -

$PDD missed on their EPS estimates by -71% and this has caused the stock to drop -17.5% right now in the PM

$PDD has been the darling of Chinese ADRs over the last 2 years and has climbed from $23 to $165 in that time.

I have added in the red validation impulse line at $110 but so far the pull back has held on the...

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY is just $2 away from hitting its ATH level now, so very little is needed to hit this point, as we lead into the last week in August and important earnings this week.

Again, this is a Tech heavy reporting week so please review the $QQQ in conjunction with this commentary.

$SPY will need to break above the $565...

$QQQ TOP 20

We have a big week ahead and it's mainly down to $NVDA reporting after the close on Weds, it is also the last trading week in August too and we will then enter what is typically a very difficult two months for the market.

This is not a surprise as the market has rebounded very strong since the 5th of August flash sell o...

$V TOP 20

$V I believe is still telling us an interesting story about the market

It is a fantastically run company and has great margins but still below its 200 Day MA, so in theory the trend is still bearish until the price can break above this level...the market is still weighing up whether rate cuts is bullish or bearish for t...

$TSLA TOP 20

A clear rejection so far at the yellow trend line, something we were watching for this week and even flushed down to $210 on Thursday after its first test of the $223 level.

Price still managed to finish above the 50 Day MA to end the week, so bulls can make another attempt at breaking above this trend line

I am n...

$SHOP TOP 20

$SHOP is reaching for its 200 WMA now at $80 and still no meaningful pull back yet

I have discussed this at length during the week and the last few weeks, so I think we are all up to speed with this now

Sept is not a strong month for the market, so I will still wait for a pull back to at least the yellow trend lin...

$PYPL TOP 20

I suspect everyone in this group is happy with how $PYPL has been behaving and sticking with this throughout its consolidating range, very little speak about it now, so I have wonder where the positive attention is.

Price has stayed strong all week, in spite of a very aggressive bounce from the 50 and 200 Day MA post ea...

$PLTR TOP 20

A noticeable change in trend to end the week here with $PLTR

Price tested the top channel twice, with two clean rejections, followed by a negative day on Friday, in spite of the market jumping +1%.

I believe a retest of the blue line at the very least is possible here, the 0.38 Fib is lower at $28.53 and we can se...

$NKE TOP 20

No pull back yet for $NKE, Bill Ackmans buy is still carrying a bullish wave with $NKE and the price is close to its 0.78 Fib now at $85.

I suspect a pull back will come shortly

Earnings is not out until the 3rd week of Sept possibly and with Sept being a notoriously difficult month, I suspect we will get a pull b...

$MSFT TOP 20

$MSFT has not been performing as well as the other Mega Caps and is lagging behind $AAPL, normally these two are heavily correlated

A retest of the 200 Day MA is possible here, which is also in between the 0.38 - 0.5 Fibs at $405 - $410.

A retest and hold on this level and I believe that $MSFT can move back up to ...

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC is still not getting the full bullish attention as $NVDA, $AMD, $DELL and $SMCI

It has been able to find support above its final Fib support level at the 0.88 Fib at $18.50 but when the other Semi's above are offering more value and better fundamentals, I believe the market will look at these 4 first before $INTC....

$GOOG TOP 20

We added at $167 after making a higher high this week and a small pull back since then managed to hold on its 0.5 Fib at $165 to finish the week at $167 again.

A lot of the Mega Caps and the market are above their 50 Day MA right now, apart from $GOOG, $AMZN and $MSFT....so if you believe the market can push to new ATH'...